Primary Data Source
All gas price data displayed on WillGasPricesDrop.com originates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — the federal statistical agency responsible for collecting, analyzing, and publishing energy data in the United States. The EIA is a branch of the U.S. Department of Energy and is widely regarded as the most authoritative source of energy price data in the country.
EIA Weekly Retail Gasoline Prices Survey
Published every Monday at approximately 4:00 PM EST. Covers national, regional (PADD), and state-level retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium unleaded gasoline. Data reflects prices from the previous Monday–Sunday survey period. Official source: eia.gov/petroleum/gasprices
EIA Open Data API v2
We connect to EIA's public API to retrieve data automatically as soon as it is published each Monday. The specific endpoint used is api.eia.gov/v2/petroleum/pri/gnd/data/ — the petroleum retail gasoline and diesel prices series. The EIA API is free, publicly accessible, and requires a free API key. Full documentation: eia.gov/opendata
Geographic Coverage
The EIA's weekly retail gasoline survey does not cover all 50 states every week. Coverage varies by data series:
| Series | Coverage | Update Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| National Average | All states, weighted by sales volume | Weekly |
| PADD Regional Averages | 5 US regions (East Coast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, Rocky Mountain, West Coast) | Weekly |
| State-Level Prices | ~21 states with sufficient survey volume (includes CA, TX, NY, FL, IL, PA, OH, and others) | Weekly |
| Metro Area Prices | Select major metro areas (varies by season) | Weekly |
Important limitation: States not covered by the EIA's weekly state survey are shown using their PADD regional average as the best available estimate. These are clearly labeled on all state pages. The EIA explains this limitation in its survey methodology documentation.
Price Component Breakdown
The retail price of gasoline is composed of four main cost categories. The percentages below represent approximate national averages in normal (non-crisis) market conditions. During the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, the crude oil component rose to approximately 65% as geopolitical risk premiums inflated crude prices.
The dominant input cost. Brent crude and WTI (West Texas Intermediate) set the global benchmark. Every $10/barrel move in crude shifts pump prices approximately 24¢/gal over 2–3 weeks.
The "crack spread" — the cost and margin of converting crude oil into finished gasoline. Varies by season, refinery utilization, and fuel blend requirements (winter vs. summer blend).
Federal excise tax: 18.4¢/gal (fixed). State taxes: 14¢–77¢/gal depending on state. The tax component does not fluctuate with oil markets.
Pipeline transport, terminal storage, trucking to retail stations, and station-level margin. Typically stable. Individual station margins are typically 5–15¢/gal.
Source for component breakdown: EIA — Factors Affecting Gasoline Prices.
Update Process
Our data pipeline runs automatically each Monday after the EIA publishes its weekly update:
Step 1 — API Fetch
We query the EIA API v2 endpoint for the most recent weekly period. The request targets the EMM_EPM0_PTE_NUS_DPG series for the national regular gasoline average and corresponding PADD and state series codes. The API returns JSON with the current week's price, the prior week's price, and historical values used for trend calculations.
Step 2 — Validation
All values are validated against reasonable bounds before display. A price outside the range of $1.50–$8.00/gal triggers a manual review flag rather than being published automatically. This prevents API errors or outlier data points from being displayed as factual prices.
Step 3 — Derived Calculations
Week-over-week change (in dollars and percentage), year-over-year comparison, and 4-week moving average are calculated from the raw API data. These are derived figures — not sourced from the EIA directly — and are clearly labeled as calculated metrics throughout the site.
Step 4 — Display
Updated prices are rendered on the homepage and all state/regional pages. The "Last updated" timestamp reflects the EIA publication date, not our server update time, to make clear that prices reflect official survey data rather than real-time pump prices.
Forecast Methodology
Gas price forecasts on this site are forward-looking estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. They are based on three inputs:
1. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)
The EIA publishes a monthly STEO that includes projected crude oil prices and retail gasoline price forecasts for the following 18 months. We use these projections as the baseline for our own forecast models. The STEO is available at eia.gov/steo.
2. Crude Oil Futures
Brent crude and WTI futures prices from the NYMEX and ICE exchanges provide forward-looking market consensus on where crude is heading. We apply the ~24¢/gal-per-$10/barrel conversion factor to translate crude futures into implied retail gasoline price ranges, accounting for the typical 2–4 week lag.
3. Geopolitical and Seasonal Context
Forecasts are contextualized by current geopolitical events (e.g., the 2026 Strait of Hormuz closure and subsequent ceasefire), OPEC+ production decisions, US refinery utilization data, and seasonal demand patterns. Summer demand historically adds 20–40¢/gal above spring prices; winter demand typically subtracts a similar amount.
Forecast accuracy disclaimer: Gas price forecasts carry significant uncertainty — particularly during geopolitical disruptions. The EIA's STEO has a historical mean absolute error of approximately 15% for 12-month forecasts. Short-term (2–4 week) forecasts are more reliable, typically within 5–8%. All forecasts on this site should be treated as informed estimates, not financial predictions.
What This Site Does Not Do
We do not display real-time pump prices. The EIA's weekly survey lags actual pump prices by approximately 3–7 days. For real-time local prices, use GasBuddy or Google Maps.
We do not manually enter or estimate prices. Every price figure is fetched directly from the EIA API or calculated from EIA source data. No prices are invented, interpolated from non-EIA sources, or based on station-reported data.
We do not provide financial advice. All content on this site is for informational purposes only. Nothing here should be construed as investment, trading, or financial advice.
Data Corrections
If you believe a price displayed on this site is incorrect, please first verify against the EIA's official weekly report. Since all our data comes directly from the EIA API, a discrepancy likely indicates either a display bug on our end or a revision in the EIA's own data.
Report discrepancies via our contact page. We take data accuracy seriously and investigate all reported corrections within 24–48 hours.
External Data Sources Referenced in Editorial Content
In addition to EIA pricing data, our analysis and editorial content reference the following sources:
- EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook — crude oil and gasoline forecasts
- OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report — production schedules and demand data
- EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report — US crude inventories and refinery utilization
- FHWA Traffic Volume Trends — US vehicle miles traveled data
- Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, and Associated Press — geopolitical event reporting cited in context articles