What is the gas price forecast for the rest of 2026?

EIA projects the national average to fall toward $3.80–$4.20/gal by Q3 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz remains open and OPEC+ production stays stable. The biggest upside risk is a ceasefire collapse; the biggest downside risk is a global recession reducing demand.

⛽ Expert Analysis — Updated April 2026

Gas Price Forecast 2026

Q: Will gas prices drop in 2026?

Yes — if the April 2026 US-Iran ceasefire holds and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, analysts project a $0.30–$0.50/gal drop within 2 weeks. The national average could fall from ~$4.87 to below $4.40 by late April 2026.

Q: What will gas prices be in summer 2026?

If the ceasefire holds, summer 2026 gas prices could average $4.00–$4.30/gal nationally — significantly lower than the spring 2026 highs above $4.90. However, summer demand typically pushes prices up 20–40¢/gal, partially offsetting geopolitical relief.

Will gas prices drop in 2026? After the historic Strait of Hormuz closure drove prices above $4.90/gal, a ceasefire changes everything. Here's what analysts expect at the pump — month by month.

The Big Picture

Gas prices in 2026 have been shaped by one event above all else: Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz following US-Israeli airstrikes in February. The Strait carries roughly 20% of the world's daily oil supply — about 21 million barrels. With it closed for over 6 weeks, Brent crude surged from $82 to $127/barrel, and US pump prices rose from $4.26 to a peak near $4.94 nationally.

On April 8, 2026, Pakistan brokered a 2-week ceasefire. Iran agreed to reopen the Strait. Energy markets responded immediately — Brent fell 4.2% on the news. The question now is: how far will prices fall, and how fast?

Month-by-Month Forecast

Period	Nat'l Avg (Regular)	Change	Key Driver
April 2026 (current)	$4.87	▲ Peak	Ceasefire announced — oil futures falling
Late April 2026	$4.40–$4.57	▼ –$0.30–$0.47	Wholesale prices drop as tankers resume
May 2026	$4.10–$4.30	▼ –$0.57–$0.77	Pump prices catch up; summer blend switchover
June–July 2026	$4.00–$4.40	— Seasonal	Summer demand pushes back against crude relief
Q3 2026 (if deal holds)	$3.80–$4.20	▼ –$0.67–$1.07	Global supply normalization; OPEC+ stable
Q3 2026 (if deal fails)	$5.20–$5.60	▲ +$0.33–$0.73	Hormuz closes again; Brent spikes above $135

3 Scenarios for 2026

Bull Case — Ceasefire Holds

$3.80

Strait stays open, OPEC+ maintains output, summer demand cools. Brent returns to $88–$92/barrel by Q3. Prices near 2023 levels.

Base Case — Partial Relief

$4.20

Ceasefire holds but fragile. Some supply returns. Brent stabilizes around $100–$105. Summer demand softens price declines.

Bear Case — Deal Collapses

$5.40+

Ceasefire fails within 2 weeks. Iran re-closes Strait. Brent spikes above $135. National average could set new all-time records.

What Drives the Forecast

Crude oil price: About 55% of the retail gas price is the cost of crude oil. Every $10 move in Brent crude translates to roughly 24¢/gal at the pump over 2–3 weeks.

Refinery margins: The crack spread — the difference between crude and refined gasoline — typically adds $0.60–$1.20/gal. Spring refinery maintenance and the summer blend switchover can temporarily compress supply and raise prices.

Seasonal demand: US gasoline demand peaks in summer (June–August) as Americans drive more. This seasonal lift typically adds $0.20–$0.40/gal above the spring price, even when crude is falling.

The dollar: Oil is priced in dollars globally. A stronger dollar makes oil cheaper for US buyers; a weaker dollar raises import costs. The Fed's rate path through 2026 is a secondary variable in the forecast.

Track the live national average and regional prices on our homepage, or check gas prices by state to see how your state compares.

Forecast FAQs

Will gas prices drop in 2026?

Yes — the April 2026 ceasefire is the biggest price catalyst since the initial Hormuz closure. If the deal holds, analysts project the national average falling from ~$4.87 to below $4.40 within 2 weeks, and potentially to $3.80–$4.20 by Q3 2026.

What will gas prices be in summer 2026?

In the base case, summer 2026 gas prices should average $4.00–$4.30/gal nationally. Seasonal demand provides upward pressure, but this is well below the spring 2026 highs. California and West Coast states will likely still sit $0.80–$1.20 above the national average.

How accurate are gas price forecasts?

Gas price forecasts carry significant uncertainty — especially during geopolitical events. The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook has a historical mean absolute error of about 15% for 12-month forecasts. Short-term (2–4 week) forecasts are more reliable, typically within 5–8%.

When will gas prices go back to normal?

"Normal" before the 2026 Iran conflict was around $4.26/gal nationally. If the ceasefire holds and Brent crude returns below $95/barrel, prices could reach that range by June–July 2026. A full return to 2024 levels ($3.50–$3.80) would require a global demand slowdown or significant OPEC+ production increases.